The Rise of Donald Trump

Official portrait of President Donald Trump. Image: Whitehouse.gov.

After the recent US election people on the political left went into a frenzy mulling over all the reasons why Trump won.
Is America just full of racists? Are people scared of their economic prospects for the future?  Are people sick of political corruption and want to “drain the swamp”? Has Government regulation gotten out of hand?

You heard all the discussions on the news, between your co-workers, and in your Facebook feed. Everyone had an expert opinion.

But what does the science actually say? Here are three factors that psychological and political science suggest explain Trump’s popularity.

1. Opposition to immigration rises in times of prosperity, not recession 

We typically think that countries become more restrictive in their immigration policies when they suffer economically. Yet in the 4 years leading up to the 2016 election, the United States had steady growth in GDP, the job sector, and hourly pay rates.

With the economy doing so well, why did we see anti-immigrant sentiments flaring in this election cycle?

Despite common beliefs, research shows that that societies are actually more likely to oppose immigration when they are doing well economically. From America to Austria, Switzerland, and the Netherlands, we see right-wing parties rising to power during periods of economic prosperity.

2. It’s not just the poor; the rich also oppose immigration

"Trumpists" include the relatively wealthy as well as the working poor. Image: Ted Eytan (CC BY-SA 2.0)

 
After the election you probably heard that the working poor of America were the ones that supported Trump because of his tough stance on immigration. They thought immigrants would steal their jobs.

But it’s not just the working poor, but also those doing quite well economically that are likely to oppose immigration.  The research shows that, indeed, those with higher disposable income are just as likely to oppose immigration as those who have the least disposable income. 

It’s suggested that this is partly driven by fear of future deprivation. However, the idea that the poor vote conservatively is not supported by data. In fact we find the median income of Trump supporters was $72,000 (compared to the national median of $56,000).  
 
3. Conservative nostalgia for the ‘good old days’

Trump wearing his iconic “Make America Great Again” hat. Image: Gage Skidmore

“Make America great again” was the central slogan of Trump’s campaign. This glorification of the past is a common thread in the rise of right-wing parties.

Right-wing politicians tend to glorify the past and highlight how bad we’re doing in the present (even when it’s not objectively true). This creates a sense of urgency.

When people hear this type of talk they are more likely to support drastic changes and the right-wing parties that propose these changes.

The following clip, from Ava Duverney’s documentary the 13th (available on Netflix), highlights glorification of the past and the need to be tough in Trump’s election campaign (as well as the link to racist policing and crowd violence). Warning: strong language and violence.

"In the good ol' days..." #13TH pic.twitter.com/2IzF87ODP6

— 13TH (@13THFilm) October 12, 2016

​So next time you hear your friends, family and media pundits arguing the rise of Trump and the Right, you’ll know at least three factors based on research as to how these parties, and these politicians rise to power!

​- Zahra Mirnajafizadeh